Since February 24, imported goods entering the United States have been subject to a temporary 10% tariff, following a U.S. Supreme Court decision to reject tariff measures imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by President Donald Trump.
This temporary mechanism is based on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for a maximum duration of 150 days—set to expire on July 24. Speaking at a seminar titled “Solutions to Respond to the U.S. 150-Day Temporary Tariff Policy” on March 25, Professor Tran Ngoc Anh of Indiana University outlined three possible scenarios after this deadline.
The most likely scenario (60% probability) is increased tariff pressure on Vietnamese exports if the Trump administration concludes its Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices. In such a case, sectors such as steel, electric vehicles, and semiconductor components could face tariffs of 20–30%, replacing the current 10% rate.
Container tại cảng Cát Lái chiều 4/2. Ảnh: Thanh Tùng
The other two scenarios are more favorable but depend on certain conditions. One possibility is that the U.S. administration may proactively ease tariffs in response to rising inflation, particularly if Brent crude oil prices exceed $140 per barrel, or if the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) rules that the use of Section 122 authority constitutes an overreach and invalidates the temporary tariffs.
A key variable in this scenario is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The combined impact of higher fuel prices and tariff-driven price increases could fuel inflation, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. “This conflict could inadvertently act as a restraining factor, compelling the U.S. to expand tariff exemptions to ease cost-of-living pressures,” Anh noted.
Another scenario envisions a bilateral trade agreement in which Vietnam opens its market to U.S. agricultural products, recognizes U.S. automotive standards, and commits to increased purchases of Boeing aircraft. In return, many Vietnamese exports could be included in a zero-tariff list and exempted from broader tariff hikes.
With export turnover nearing $152 billion, the United States was Vietnam’s largest export market last year, marking an increase of over 28% compared to 2024. In the first two months of 2026, export value rose nearly 22% year-on-year to $23.8 billion, according to the General Department of Customs.
According to Cao Thi Phi Van, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Investment and Trade Promotion Center (ITPC), the temporary 10% tariff provides short-term breathing room for some businesses to maintain profit margins, avoid immediate price adjustments, and stabilize delivery schedules.
However, after the 150-day period, companies may face pressure from U.S. partners to reduce prices to share the tariff burden, increasing the risk of order reductions or contract disruptions if no agreement is reached.
Dr. Huynh The Du of the University of Wisconsin Oshkosh advised businesses to take advantage of this 150-day window to accelerate shipments, finalize contracts, and respond to front-loading trends in imports.
At the same time, companies should proactively renegotiate contract terms with U.S. partners, paying close attention to Incoterms, cost-sharing mechanisms, and price adjustment clauses.
“Firms need to develop contingency plans for scenarios where tariffs rise to 15% or higher, or where stricter trade measures are imposed after July 24. Diversifying export markets should also be prioritized to reduce dependency risks,” Du emphasized.
Amid the risk of higher tariffs following Section 301 investigations, Professor Tran Ngoc Anh urged businesses and industry associations to strengthen legal preparedness, including reviewing 10-digit HTS codes and working with trade lawyers in Washington to participate in Section 301 hearings and demonstrate production capacity aligned with real market demand.
Experts also recommend adopting Global Trade Management (GTM) systems and blockchain technology to automate documentation, screen restricted entities, and enhance supply chain transparency—especially for sensitive materials such as cotton, textiles, leather, and wood.
For policymakers, Dr. Du suggested establishing a “150-Day Tariff Response Task Force” to closely monitor developments, issue weekly updates, and provide guidance on HS codes and rules of origin. Countries like Singapore and New Zealand have already implemented similar support measures, including updated customs guidance and legal advisory services.
In addition, tighter control over certificates of origin (C/O) and strengthened economic diplomacy are essential to minimize the risk of becoming targets of investigations under Sections 232 or 301.
“Timely, coordinated responses and strict compliance with trade rules will be critical for Vietnam to safeguard its market share and reputation in the U.S.,” Du concluded.
Viễn Thông (VnExpress)